牧原股份(002714)：产能优化成本稳步下降 养猪龙头高质量发展

Core Insights - The company reported a sales volume of 5.573 million pigs in September 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.05%, driven by improved operational efficiency and production planning [1] - The average selling price of pigs decreased by 30.94% to 12.88 yuan/kg, leading to a sales revenue of 9.066 billion yuan, down 22.46% year-on-year [1] - From January to September 2025, the company sold a total of 57.323 million pigs, a 27.0% increase year-on-year, and sold 11.571 million piglets, a significant increase of 151.2% [1] Cost Management - The company has achieved significant cost reduction in pig farming, with total costs dropping to approximately 11.6 yuan/kg in September 2025, with a target to reduce it to 11 yuan/kg by year-end [2] - Cost reductions are attributed to improved production performance and decreased unit period expenses [2] - The company has identified three core cost reduction strategies: 1. Breeding improvements focusing on reproductive and growth performance [2] 2. Health management to enhance overall herd health and growth potential [2] 3. Talent and management strategies to align lower-performing farms with those achieving costs below 11 yuan/kg [2] Capacity Optimization - The company has actively adjusted its breeding capacity, reducing the number of breeding sows to 3.305 million by the end of September 2025, with no plans for new sows in the short term [3] - The average weight of pigs sold has been reduced to 120 kg as of the end of August [3] - The company has ceased sales of fattening pigs to secondary fattening customers and is cooperating with relevant departments to establish a control system [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a high-quality development phase, with expected revenue growth and continued cost advantages [4] - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 144.610 billion, 155.493 billion, and 160.691 billion yuan, with net profits of 18.471 billion, 24.916 billion, and 30.057 billion yuan respectively [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted at 3.38, 4.56, and 5.50 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14.69, 10.89, and 9.03 [4]