Analyst Says Apple (AAPL) iPhone 17 Will Not Result in Super Cycle, Thinks Stock Valuation Not Justified

Core Viewpoint - Analyst Stephanie Link expresses skepticism about the iPhone 17 leading to a "super cycle" for Apple Inc, suggesting that the stock's current valuation is not justified given its growth rate [1][2]. Group 1: Analyst Insights - Stephanie Link believes that the iPhone 17 will not significantly boost Apple's growth rate, which is currently at 8% [1]. - Link anticipates that the iPhone 18 may have a better chance of driving growth due to the potential inclusion of AI features [1]. - The UBS survey indicates that the iPhone upgrade cycle has extended to 35 months in the US, with 63% of users keeping their devices for over two years [2]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Apple is facing increased competition in key markets like China, where it is losing its pricing edge and must cap its prices [2]. - Competitors such as Samsung and Xiaomi are able to launch advanced hardware and software features, putting pressure on Apple [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Mar Vista U.S. Quality Strategy noted a rebound in Apple shares in Q3 2025, attributed to easing concerns over tariffs and positive initial demand for the iPhone 17 [3]. - The favorable resolution of Alphabet's DOJ trial is seen as beneficial for both Apple and Alphabet [3].