机构科技仓位突破40%！震荡要来了？——道达投资手记

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China economic and trade discussions in Kuala Lumpur have provided a buffer period that is beneficial for exports, contributing to a rebound in Hong Kong stocks after the A-share market closed [3] Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 4000-point mark, closing down 0.73%. The Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index dropped 1.16% and 1.84%, respectively. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 24.217 billion yuan, an increase of 1.656 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - The market saw 1242 stocks rise and 4100 stocks fall, with a median decline of 1.25% in stock prices. The Shanghai Composite Index has shown two consecutive gaps since last Friday, indicating potential for a market correction to fill the gap from Monday [5][6] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the resistance zone of 4000-4184 points, suggesting that even with market corrections, there is a lower limit for the index, with expectations to fill the gap at 3950 points [5][6] - A range-bound expectation of 3950-4100 points is established based on current market conditions [6] Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly AI hardware stocks, has shown signs of adjustment, with core stocks experiencing high volatility. Traditional sectors like nuclear construction and aluminum have shown stronger performance, indicating a rotation of funds [8][10] - Institutional investors' holdings in the technology sector have surpassed 40%, a level not seen since the peak of the new energy wave from 2020-2022, suggesting a high concentration of investment in this area [9] - The steel sector index rose by 1.32%, marking it as the top-performing sector, which historically signals the nearing end of a market phase [11] Investment Strategy - Given the current market conditions, it is advised to avoid blindly chasing high-performing AI hardware stocks. Instead, investors should look for opportunities to enter during significant price declines, adopting a short-term perspective [10][11]