突然下跌！猪价可能涨到头了！

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in pig prices is seen as a rebound rather than a reversal, with significant factors influencing this trend, including the entry of secondary fattening and market dynamics affecting supply and demand [2][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - Pig prices have recently risen to over 6 yuan per kilogram, marking a significant increase after a period of decline [2]. - On the last day of October, pig prices experienced a drop, which is noteworthy compared to previous short-lived declines [2]. - The average entry rate for secondary fattening has reached between 25% to 40%, with some regions exceeding 50% [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The entry of secondary fattening has reduced the supply of market pigs, while the onset of colder weather has increased downstream pork consumption, leading to a supply decrease and demand increase [4]. - Despite the seasonal increase in pork consumption during the fourth quarter, the supply is expected to rise significantly due to high production levels and the release of stock by pig farming enterprises [10][12]. Group 3: Cost and Profitability Concerns - The cost of secondary fattening has increased due to rising pig prices, which may lead to a more cautious approach among farmers [5]. - The price gap between market pigs and larger pigs has narrowed, making it less profitable for farmers to engage in buying market pigs to sell larger ones [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall market is not expected to lack pigs, as high levels of breeding sows and piglets indicate a stable supply [12]. - While there may be slight price increases in November, the market is anticipated to enter a phase of fluctuation, suggesting caution in pursuing further price hikes [12].