网约车老五赴港上市，聚合模式或成最大赢家？

Core Viewpoint - Xiangdao Mobility has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming for a listing on the main board, positioning itself as the fifth largest ride-hailing platform in China by Gross Transaction Value (GTV) in 2024 [1][15]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for Xiangdao Mobility from 2022 to 2024 are 4.729 billion, 5.718 billion, and 6.394 billion RMB, respectively, with net losses decreasing from 781 million to 407 million RMB, indicating a narrowing loss rate from 16.5% to 6.4% [3][4][6]. - The ride-hailing service, which is the core business, is expected to generate over 5.5 billion RMB in GTV in 2024, with daily orders exceeding 600,000 [3][4]. User and Driver Metrics - The number of registered drivers is projected to grow from 341,000 in 2022 to 1,062,000 by mid-2025, reflecting significant expansion in operational capacity [3][4]. - Monthly active users reached 127 million, with the ride-hailing service covering 85 cities in China [3]. Market Position - Xiangdao Mobility holds a 10.2% market share in Shanghai, ranking second in completed orders, and has established a fleet of over 5,300 compliant vehicles in the city [8]. - The company has expanded its operations from Shanghai to the Yangtze River Delta and nationwide since its establishment in 2018 [8]. Business Model and Growth Strategy - The company has increasingly relied on aggregation platforms for order fulfillment, with the proportion of orders from these platforms rising from 91.79% in 2022 to 98.55% in the first half of 2025 [11][12]. - The gross profit margin for the ride-hailing business is projected to increase from 2.2% in 2023 to 12.2% in the first half of 2025, indicating a shift from aggressive expansion to refined operations [6][7]. Industry Trends - The aggregation model in the ride-hailing industry has grown significantly, with market share increasing from 5.7% in 2019 to an expected 29.6% in 2024, suggesting a strong growth potential [12][13]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with companies needing to adapt to the dominance of aggregation platforms, which are becoming the primary winners in the market [14].