金价回调是陷阱还是馅饼？世界黄金协会最新报告给出方向

Core Insights - Global gold demand reached a record high of 1,313 tons in Q3 2025, with a total value of $146 billion, marking the highest quarterly demand ever recorded [1] - The surge in gold prices, which increased over 50% this year, was driven by geopolitical risks and market dynamics, although a recent price correction occurred due to easing tensions between the US and China [1][3] - Investment demand for gold has significantly increased, accounting for 55% of total net demand in Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 47% [6] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Global gold investment demand rose to 537 tons in Q3, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and a weakening dollar, alongside a fear of missing out among investors [6] - Central banks globally purchased a net total of 220 tons of gold in Q3, a 28% increase from the previous quarter and a 10% increase year-on-year, contributing to a total of 634 tons for the first three quarters of the year [7][8] - The total global gold supply reached 1,313 tons in Q3, a 3% increase year-on-year, with mine production up 2% to 977 tons and recycled gold supply up 6% to 344 tons [8][9] Regional Insights - In China, retail gold investment and consumption demand reached 152 tons in Q3, a 7% decline year-on-year, but the monetary value surged to 120.4 billion yuan, a 29% increase, marking the highest Q3 value on record [9][12] - Chinese gold ETF holdings saw a net outflow of 3.8 billion yuan in Q3, with total holdings decreasing by 5.8 tons, although the asset management total increased by 11% to 168.8 billion yuan [12][14] - Despite high gold prices, consumer spending on gold jewelry in China reached 66.5 billion yuan in Q3, a 14% increase year-on-year, indicating a willingness to purchase despite price pressures [12][13] Future Outlook - The World Gold Council anticipates that gold jewelry consumption may see seasonal improvements in Q4, although this could be tempered by high gold prices and the timing of the Chinese New Year [14] - Investment demand for gold is expected to remain strong due to ongoing geopolitical risks and potential monetary policy changes, including interest rate cuts in China [15][17] - The recent regulatory changes allowing insurance funds to invest in gold are expected to provide long-term support for gold investment demand in China [16]