超级央行周跌宕起伏，全球主要央行货币政策“分道扬镳”

Core Viewpoint - The recent decisions by major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan, and European Central Bank, highlight a divergence in monetary policy approaches amid varying economic conditions and inflationary pressures across regions [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, but Chairman Powell indicated that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, reflecting a cautious approach [2][3]. - Key takeaways from the Fed's meeting include the 25 basis point cut, the end of balance sheet reduction starting December 1, and a cautious stance on future rate cuts due to significant internal disagreements among officials [2][3]. - The Fed's decision to cut rates is largely a preventive measure in response to a cooling job market and the potential impact of the government shutdown on economic data [2][5]. Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown due to the combined effects of tariff increases and tighter monetary policy, with fiscal policy now complicated by the government shutdown [5][6]. - The shutdown has led to delays in key economic data releases, creating information asymmetry for decision-makers and potentially altering market expectations regarding the Fed's actions [5][6]. Other Central Banks - The Bank of Canada has also cut rates by 25 basis points but suggests that its easing cycle may be nearing an end, while the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan have maintained their current rates [1][8]. - The European Central Bank is expected to adopt a more dovish stance in 2026, influenced by weaker economic growth and lower inflation pressures in the Eurozone [7][8]. - The Bank of Japan is at a critical juncture, with market expectations for a potential rate hike due to persistent inflation, despite maintaining its current rate for now [9][10]. Market Implications - The divergence in monetary policy among major central banks may lead to increased volatility in currency markets, particularly for the Japanese yen, which could appreciate if the Bank of Japan signals a shift towards tightening [10][11]. - The overall economic landscape suggests that the Fed may need to adopt a more flexible policy framework, moving away from traditional rules like the Taylor rule, to better respond to evolving economic conditions and pressures [6][7].