Ge Long Hui·2025-10-30 14:09Core Viewpoint - The energy storage sector is experiencing a significant recovery and value reassessment in 2025, driven by favorable policies, increasing demand, and rapid profit growth [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Stimulus - The Chinese government has reinforced support for the battery industry through policies, including the "New Energy Storage Scale Construction Special Action Plan (2025-2027)," which aims for a new energy storage capacity of over 180 million kilowatts by 2027, leading to direct investments of approximately 250 billion yuan [5]. - The industry is transitioning from "mandatory storage" to "independent storage," enhancing market vitality and diversifying revenue sources [6]. - The new five-year plan emphasizes increasing the proportion of renewable energy supply and promoting high-quality development of clean energy [6]. Group 2: Market Demand - In the domestic market, the new energy storage capacity reached 75.9 GWh in the first eight months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42%. The lithium battery shipment in Q3 was 165 GWh, up 65% year-on-year, with an expected total shipment of 580 GWh for the year, representing a growth rate exceeding 75% [7]. - Globally, the shipment of energy storage cells is projected to reach 226 GWh in 2025, a 97% increase year-on-year, with Chinese companies holding 90% of the market share [8]. Group 3: Industry Performance - Leading companies like CATL reported Q3 revenue of 104.186 billion yuan, a 12.9% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 18.549 billion yuan, up 41.21% year-on-year, indicating strong cost control and product optimization [15]. - Sungrow achieved Q3 revenue of 22.869 billion yuan, a 20.83% increase, with net profit soaring 57.04% year-on-year [16]. - Other companies, such as EVE Energy and Guoxuan High-Tech, also reported significant revenue and profit growth, reflecting a broader recovery in the energy storage battery sector [18][19]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Two core trends for the future of energy storage include policy developments related to grid storage and the integration of energy storage with global AI data centers [23]. - The energy storage industry is expected to experience high growth and certainty, driven by ongoing renewable energy construction and the increasing importance of energy storage in enhancing the profitability of renewable energy generation [25]. - The valuation of the energy storage battery sector is currently around 35 times PE-TTM, lower than the 45 times expected in 2024, indicating potential for valuation recovery [30]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The energy storage battery ETF (159566) has seen significant capital inflow, with over 590 million yuan in net inflow over the past 20 days, and its current scale has surpassed 2 billion yuan [22][34]. - The ETF tracks the National Certificate New Energy Battery Index, focusing on leading companies in the energy storage industry, including CATL, Sungrow, and EVE Energy [35].