三季度增速创十年来新低，贵州茅台9%增长目标有点悬了

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's Q3 financial results show a significant slowdown in growth, raising concerns about achieving the annual revenue target of 9% growth, which now appears challenging [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached 39.064 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.56%, marking the lowest growth rate since 2016 [1][3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.224 billion yuan, up 0.48% year-on-year, with both core indicators showing a sharp decline in growth [1][3]. - For the first three quarters, total revenue was 130.9 billion yuan, a 6.32% increase, and net profit was 64.63 billion yuan, up 6.25%, both representing the lowest growth rates in nearly 11 years [3]. Revenue Target Challenges - To meet the annual revenue target of approximately 190.8 billion yuan, Q4 must achieve at least 59.913 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.5% [3]. - Historical data indicates that achieving such a high growth rate in Q4 is rare, with only one instance in the past six years [3]. Inventory and Market Sentiment - As of the end of Q3, contract liabilities were 7.749 billion yuan, a decrease of 22% year-on-year, indicating reduced willingness among distributors to stock up [4][5]. - The price of Feitian Moutai has been declining, with wholesale prices dropping from around 2,200 yuan at the beginning of the year to below 1,700 yuan in late October [7][8]. Product Line Performance - The Moutai liquor segment generated 110.514 billion yuan in revenue, a 9.28% increase, while the sauce-flavor liquor segment saw a significant decline, with revenue falling 7.78% to 17.884 billion yuan [9][11]. - The sauce-flavor liquor segment's Q3 revenue plummeted by 33.7% to 4.121 billion yuan, far below company expectations [11]. Leadership Changes - Guizhou Moutai recently underwent a leadership change, with Chen Hua appointed as the new chairman, who lacks prior experience in the liquor industry [13][14].