三季度增速创十年来新低 贵州茅台9%增长目标有点悬了

Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai's Q3 financial results show a significant slowdown in growth, with revenue at 39.064 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 0.56%, marking the lowest quarterly growth since 2016 [2][4] - The company's annual revenue target of 9% growth now appears challenging, as Q4 would require a revenue of at least 599.13 billion yuan, representing a 19.5% year-on-year increase [4][12] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue was 39.064 billion yuan, with a total revenue for the first three quarters of 130.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.32% year-on-year increase [3][4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 19.224 billion yuan, with a total net profit for the first three quarters at 646.3 billion yuan, both showing a growth of 0.48% and 6.25% respectively [3][4] - Cash flow from operating activities showed a decline of 14.01% year-on-year for the year-to-date period [3] Market Trends - The price of Feitian Moutai has been declining, with wholesale prices dropping from around 2200 yuan at the beginning of the year to 1660 yuan by late October, indicating a downward trend that may continue [7][8] - The revenue from the Moutai liquor segment grew by 9.28% year-on-year, while the revenue from the sauce-flavor liquor segment fell by 7.78%, with a significant drop of 33.7% in Q3 [9][10] Management Changes - Guizhou Moutai has recently undergone a leadership change, with Chen Hua appointed as the new chairman, who lacks prior experience in the liquor industry [11][12] - The new leadership faces significant challenges in achieving the company's ambitious growth targets amid a sluggish market environment [12]