SCS(SH:601555) Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-10-30 16:24Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry in China is undergoing a deep adjustment period due to the dual pressures of capacity expansion and slowing terminal demand, with no fundamental change in the overall supply-demand pattern [1] Group 1: Market Demand and Supply - The current photovoltaic market demand has not formed a strong support [1] - As the traditional installation peak season approaches its end in Q4, the price trends across the industry chain are under close scrutiny [1] - Despite some signs of price recovery in certain segments, the overall market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation and consolidation due to weak terminal demand and existing inventory pressures [1][6] Group 2: Polysilicon Market - Polysilicon, a core upstream segment of the photovoltaic industry, is facing challenges of oversupply and high inventory, with social inventory expected to reach 440,000 to 450,000 tons by September [2] - Although some companies plan to reduce production, overall output remains high due to new capacity ramp-up and the resumption of production by second and third-tier manufacturers [2] - The average transaction price for n-type raw materials remains stable at 53,200 yuan per ton, with overall production expected to reach a peak in October [2][3] Group 3: Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell Prices - In the midstream segment, silicon wafer and battery cell companies are attempting to repair profitability through price adjustments, with silicon wafer prices having increased since September [4] - Despite a 5.37% month-on-month increase in silicon wafer production, the price increase has not fully transmitted downstream, leading to a situation where battery cells are still facing losses [4] - The market for silicon wafers is currently in a phase of negotiation, with prices expected to remain stable but under pressure from weak terminal demand [4][6] Group 4: Module Demand and Production - The module segment is experiencing a decline in demand, with orders decreasing and production expected to drop by 3.19% in October [5] - Mainstream module prices remain stable, but high-power versions are seeing price increases due to better supply-demand dynamics [5] - Overall, the industry is expected to face downward price risks due to insufficient orders and high inventory levels, with a focus shifting to next year's order and production planning as the traditional installation peak season ends [6]