10月30日，不到4小时的闪崩，黄金市场或将迎来变盘

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, attributed to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and comments, has led to significant market volatility and a shift in investor sentiment towards gold [1][3][7]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced a rapid drop from over $4020 to $3938 within a few hours following the Fed's rate cut and Powell's comments on future rate decisions [1][3]. - The market's expectation for a December rate cut plummeted from 95% to 67.9% after Powell's remarks, causing the dollar index to rebound and 10-year Treasury yields to rise [3]. - The volatility in gold prices was exacerbated by a significant outflow from gold ETFs, with a reduction of 2.87 tons, marking the largest outflow in nearly a month [1][5]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - Central banks are showing divergent strategies; the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months, reaching 74.06 million ounces, while the Reserve Bank of India purchased 27 tons in October alone [5]. - A survey by the World Gold Council indicated that 73% of central banks expect a decline in the dollar's reserve share over the next five years, with gold now comprising 20% of global official reserves, surpassing the euro's 16% [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold has entered a technical correction phase, with a decline of over 10% from its recent high of $4381 to a low of $3930, forming a "double top" structure [9]. - The breach of the key support level at $3950 suggests potential further declines towards the $3800-$3700 range [9]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold prices fell from 1292 yuan per gram to 1235 yuan per gram, with domestic gold stocks experiencing significant declines [9]. Group 4: Speculative Positioning - Speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures decreased by 12%, while commercial short positions increased by 7% [11]. - A surge in put option volumes at the $3950 strike price indicates that some institutions are betting on further declines in gold prices [11]. - The traditional inverse relationship between gold prices and real interest rates has been disrupted this year, as evidenced by gold's drop following the Fed's rate cut in September [11][13]. Group 5: Broader Economic Context - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, increasing uncertainty in policy expectations and suppressing gold's safe-haven appeal [7]. - Geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict in Israel and Ukraine, have created mixed signals for gold, with some events boosting safe-haven demand while others diminish it [7].