凌晨三点五十的巨震！美联储第五次降息，A股4000点之上的机遇与陷阱

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since December 2024 [1][3] - The dot plot indicates that Fed officials expect two more rate cuts this year, with a median forecast for the year-end rate at 3.6% [3] - The decision to halt balance sheet reduction is significant, as it signals the end of years of quantitative tightening [5] Group 2 - There is notable internal disagreement within the Fed, with two members voting against the decision, indicating uncertainty in future monetary policy [5] - Historical trends show that when the U.S. enters a rate-cutting cycle, it significantly impacts global mainstream assets, potentially supporting risk assets like A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks [5][8] - Fed Chair Powell's hawkish remarks during the press conference surprised the market, emphasizing that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed [5][7] Group 3 - Powell highlighted the challenges in decision-making due to delayed economic data from the government shutdown, which complicates the Fed's assessment [7] - Inflation remains a concern, with core PCE inflation projected at 2.3%-2.4%, close to the Fed's 2% target [7] - The Fed's preventive rate cuts are expected to improve global liquidity, enhancing investor appetite for equity assets, particularly in emerging markets [7] Group 4 - The A-share market is likely to be significantly influenced by the Fed's policy shift, with historical data suggesting strong performance during Fed rate-cutting cycles [8][10] - The A-share market has evolved, with total market capitalization exceeding 118 trillion yuan and a more rational valuation compared to previous years [10] - The growth sector is expected to benefit directly from the Fed's rate cuts, as lower financing costs will support domestic technological innovation [12] Group 5 - Despite the overall positive impact of the Fed's rate cut on risk assets, investors should remain cautious of potential risks, including market volatility due to expectation discrepancies [12] - Domestic fundamentals, such as real estate risk resolution and consumer recovery, are crucial for the sustainability of the A-share market rebound [12] - The Fed's policy may fluctuate, with Powell warning that inflation risks have not been resolved, adding to policy uncertainty [12][13]