美联储再降息25个基点，12月是否继续降息远未定局

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking the second reduction this year, but Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks created uncertainty about future cuts [1][3][10]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates was in line with market expectations, with a high probability of a cut predicted before the meeting [3]. - The FOMC noted that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and inflation rates remaining high [3]. - There was internal dissent within the Fed regarding the rate cut, with some members advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut while others preferred to maintain current rates [8][10]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Powell's hawkish comments led to a significant market reaction, with major U.S. stock indices dropping during his press conference, while the dollar index rose sharply [15]. - Following Powell's remarks, traders adjusted their expectations for a December rate cut, reducing the probability from 90% to 71% [15]. Group 3: Economic Context - The Fed's meeting occurred amid a government shutdown, which has delayed the release of key economic data, including employment figures [18]. - Powell acknowledged that the shutdown would temporarily impact economic activity but emphasized that the Fed has alternative data sources to monitor the economy [18]. Group 4: Future Rate Path - There are notable divisions among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with some predicting additional cuts in the coming months while others express concerns about inflation [20]. - The market is left uncertain as Powell did not commit to a December rate cut, contrasting with previous market expectations [20].