CHINA COAL(1898.HK)：UNATTRACTIVE DIVIDEND DESPITE DECENT QOQ GROWTH IN 3Q25

Core Viewpoint - China Coal's earnings increased by 16% QoQ to RMB3.86 billion in 3Q25, driven by higher realized coal prices and increased olefin sales volume, but a significant drop of 53% QoQ is expected in 4Q25 due to higher costs [1][3] Financial Performance - Under CAS, earnings surged 28% QoQ to RMB4.78 billion in 3Q25, attributed to a 4% decline in unit coal production costs [2] - The average selling price (ASP) of coal rose by 7% QoQ, with both thermal and coking coal prices increasing [3] - Olefin sales volume grew by 6% QoQ, following a major production ramp-up, leading to a 28% fall in unit costs for olefin [3] Earnings Forecasts - Earnings forecasts for 2025-27 have been increased by 2-6% after adjustments, with expectations of flat earnings in the next two years despite a slight decline in average coal prices [4] - The company's H shares are projected to offer an unattractive dividend yield of 3.4-3.5% for 2025-27, with a payout ratio of 35-36% in 2023-24 [4] Valuation - The target price has been raised from HK$7.21 to HK$7.57, reflecting the increases in earnings forecasts, maintaining a target valuation of a 5% average dividend yield for 2025-27 [5]