Ge Long Hui·2025-10-30 21:02Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, but a significant increase in net profit, indicating a resilient performance despite challenging market conditions [1]. Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, the company's revenue was 95.872 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.72%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.437 billion yuan, an increase of 15.87% [1]. - In Q3 2025, revenue was 35.920 billion yuan, down 10.92% year-on-year, but net profit rose to 2.533 billion yuan, up 20.32% [1]. - The total power generation for the first nine months was 201.329 billion kWh, a decrease of 5.87% compared to the adjusted figures from the previous year, but the decline was less severe than in the first half of 2025 [1]. Pricing and Cost Dynamics - The average on-grid electricity price for the first nine months was 0.50955 yuan per kWh, down 2.76% from the previous year, indicating stable pricing [1]. - The average spot price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal in Q3 2025 was 672 yuan per ton, a decrease of 21% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to see an increase in profit per kWh due to a greater reduction in costs compared to the decrease in electricity prices, leading to improved profitability in thermal power generation [1]. Capacity Price Mechanism - The upcoming increase in capacity prices is expected to benefit the company significantly, with a projected revenue increase of 3.536 billion yuan from capacity fee adjustments starting in 2026 [2]. - The fixed cost for coal power units will be standardized at 330 yuan per kW annually, with local implementations expected to rise to at least 50% of this standard [2]. Financial Cost Management - The company has effectively reduced financial costs, with financial expenses for the first nine months amounting to 2.414 billion yuan, a decrease of 444 million yuan year-on-year [2]. - The company is leveraging interest rate cuts to further lower financial costs, contributing positively to overall performance [2]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 6.895 billion, 7.658 billion, and 8.044 billion yuan respectively [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 9, 8, and 8 times for the respective years, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].