主流经济学产业结构 论调局限在哪

Core Argument - The mainstream economic view that prioritizes the development of productive services as the leading industry is outdated; instead, a strong manufacturing sector, particularly high-end manufacturing, is essential for a country's economic strength and competitiveness [1][2][3]. Group 1: Historical Context and Economic Theories - Historically, no country has become a global power solely through services; all strong nations have relied on manufacturing [3]. - The "Pietro-Clark Theorem" suggests that as income rises, labor shifts from primary to secondary and then to tertiary industries, but this view has misled global industrial structure adjustments [1][3]. - The U.S. began to refocus on manufacturing as a strategic economic initiative during the Obama administration, indicating a shift back to prioritizing manufacturing [2]. Group 2: Importance of Manufacturing - The rise of the Netherlands in the 17th century was closely tied to its manufacturing strength, particularly in textiles, which was later undermined by an overemphasis on commerce and finance [3]. - The experience of Hong Kong illustrates that a lack of strong manufacturing can limit economic development, despite having competitive service sectors [4]. - A robust manufacturing base is crucial for national security; countries without strong manufacturing capabilities risk vulnerability [4]. Group 3: Current Global Trends - The global competition for economic dominance is increasingly centered on high-end and advanced manufacturing sectors, with major developed countries vying for resources in these areas [2][5]. - The U.S. maintains a competitive edge in high-end manufacturing, particularly in defense and aerospace, as evidenced by the production of advanced military aircraft [4]. - The urgency for China to develop a manufacturing-centric industrial system is emphasized, highlighting a consensus on the importance of this strategy for long-term economic stability [5].