【世经述评】美联储决策环境更加复杂

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 and aligning with market expectations [2] - The decision to cut rates was not unanimous, with two dissenting votes; one member advocated for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, while another preferred to maintain the current rate [2] - The Fed decided to end its quantitative tightening (QT) policy, concluding a three-and-a-half-year period of balance sheet reduction, which began in June 2022 [2] Group 2 - Fed Chair Powell indicated significant internal disagreement regarding future rate cuts, particularly for the December meeting, suggesting that the likelihood of a rate cut is not guaranteed [3] - Market expectations for a December rate cut dropped from 90% to 65% following Powell's comments, leading to a decline in major stock indices and a rise in the dollar index [3] - The ongoing government shutdown has created a data vacuum, complicating the Fed's ability to assess economic conditions accurately [4] Group 3 - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September showed a 0.2% month-over-month increase and a 3.0% year-over-year increase, the lowest level since June [4] - The absence of non-farm payroll data makes it challenging for the Fed to gauge the employment market accurately, creating a dilemma between stabilizing prices and promoting employment [4] - The Congressional Budget Office warned that the government shutdown could result in economic losses between $7 billion and $14 billion, with longer shutdowns leading to more permanent economic damage [4] Group 4 - Political pressure on the Fed is increasing, with President Trump criticizing the Fed's actions and hinting at potential personnel changes that could influence decision-making [5] - Major U.S. companies are announcing significant layoffs, with Amazon cutting 14,000 jobs and UPS planning to reduce its workforce by 48,000, indicating a trend influenced by artificial intelligence [5] - Current economic growth is heavily reliant on investments in AI infrastructure, with traditional sectors showing minimal growth without these investments [5] Group 5 - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, creating a significant interest burden projected to reach $1.4 trillion by 2025, which will consume 26.5% of federal revenue [6] - The rising interest costs are expected to crowd out essential future investments, with the Peterson Foundation warning that interest expenses will increase from $4 trillion over the past decade to $14 trillion in the next [6] - The ongoing debt situation has led to a downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating from "AA" to "AA-" by a European rating agency, citing deteriorating public finance and governance standards [6] Group 6 - The Fed faces a complex decision-making environment influenced by data shortages, political pressures, and debt challenges, which may limit its policy flexibility and increase economic risks [7]