黄奇帆：民企不要在制造业“内卷”，生产性服务业还可盘活商业地产

Core Insights - By 2025, China's GDP is expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan, with a projected increase of over 35 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, equivalent to the total GDP of Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces combined, surpassing the economic output of the world's third-largest economy [1] - Manufacturing is identified as the core pillar supporting this substantial economic base, with China maintaining the world's largest manufacturing scale for 15 consecutive years and leading in the production of over 200 major industrial products [1] - The development of the productive service industry, which is closely related to manufacturing, has lagged behind, presenting new growth opportunities for China's economy during the 15th Five-Year Plan [3][4] Productive Service Industry - The productive service industry is defined as sectors that provide services to manufacturing, including research and development, design, logistics, and financial services, rather than producing tangible products [5] - This sector has seen its GDP share increase from 10% in 1980 to approximately 28% by 2024, making it the fastest-growing segment of China's GDP, with an average annual growth rate of about 12.1% from 2020 to 2024, significantly outpacing the overall GDP growth rate of 5% [7][8] - In comparison, the productive service industry accounts for about 50% of GDP in the United States, indicating substantial room for growth in China [7] Role of Private Enterprises - Private enterprises are encouraged to expand their focus beyond traditional manufacturing and seize opportunities in the productive service industry, which is seen as a promising area for growth [3][11] - The report highlights that private enterprises contribute over 50% of China's tax revenue, 60% of GDP, 70% of technological innovations, 80% of urban employment, and 90% of new urban jobs, underscoring their critical role in the economy [11] - The rise of unicorn companies, particularly in the productive service sector, is viewed as a key driver for industry growth, with 372 unicorns in China valued at over $1.2 trillion, indicating a need for nurturing and expanding these enterprises [9][11] Employment and Economic Development - The growth of the productive service industry is expected to create millions of jobs in office settings, helping to alleviate the current supply-demand imbalance in the commercial real estate market [11] - With over 10 million university graduates entering the job market annually, the productive service industry offers new avenues for employment and entrepreneurship, particularly for high-skilled talent [11]