中泰证券：市场胜率坚实 “结构牛”情形下赔率空间相对有限

Core Insights - The market odds indicator is currently at a relatively high level under a "structural bull" scenario [1] - The A-share market's securitization rate and median valuation are comparable to the structural bull levels at the end of 2021, with historical exceedance only during the comprehensive bull markets of 2009 and 2015 [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300's equity risk premium (ERP) is below the previous two market peaks, situated at the lower end of the rolling three-year average plus two standard deviations [1] - Overall, under the "structural bull" scenario, the market's odds space is relatively limited, and historical experience suggests that a transition to a comprehensive bull market would require a significant improvement in macro expectations or further liquidity expansion [1]