桥水基金创始人达利欧：黄金是最安全的货币

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes the importance of gold as a form of currency that is difficult to devalue or confiscate, and he has compiled a FAQ on gold due to numerous inquiries [1][2] Historical Context of Currency - Dalio categorizes historical currencies into two types: "hard asset-backed currencies" like gold and silver, and "fiat currencies" which are government-issued without asset backing [2] - He notes that when countries operated under the gold standard, excessive debt relative to gold reserves often led to monetary system issues, resulting in either debt defaults or currency devaluation [2][3] - The end of the gold standard in 1933 and 1971 are highlighted as significant historical events that shaped the current fiat currency system [2][3] Gold as an Investment - Dalio argues that gold outperforms fiat currencies during periods of high debt and insufficient money supply, making it a reliable store of value [3][4] - He points out that while fiat currencies can provide better returns in high-interest environments, gold becomes more attractive when currency devaluation or credit risks rise [3][4] - Gold is viewed as a "fundamental money" rather than a speculative asset, and it should be part of a long-term investment strategy [5][6] Strategic Asset Allocation - Dalio suggests that gold should be analyzed similarly to stocks, bonds, or cash, focusing on expected returns, risks, correlations, and liquidity [6] - The ideal allocation for gold in a diversified portfolio is typically between 5% to 15%, depending on the investor's overall asset composition and risk tolerance [6][7] - Tactical adjustments to gold holdings may be warranted during monetary crises or increased confiscation risks, while stable periods may allow for reductions [7] Conclusion on Gold's Role - Despite not being a high-yield asset, gold is recommended as a long-term holding due to its unique properties as a currency that is less susceptible to confiscation or loss of value [7]