澳大利亚2025年第三季度通胀率升至3.2%

Core Insights - Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.2% year-on-year in Q3 2025, exceeding market expectations and significantly higher than the 2.1% increase in Q2 2025 [1] - The rise in inflation suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to lower interest rates in November [1][2] - The annual inflation rate of 3.2% is the highest since Q2 2024, when it was 3.8% [1] - The quarterly CPI increased by 1.3%, marking the largest quarterly rise since Q1 2023 [1] - Key contributors to inflation include housing (2.5% increase), recreation and culture (1.9% increase), and transportation (1.2% increase) [1] - Electricity prices surged by 9% in Q3, influenced by annual price adjustments and delays in subsidy receipt for some households [1] - The trimmed mean inflation rate rose from 2.7% to 3%, marking the first increase since Q4 2022 [1] Economic Outlook - Due to the significant rise in inflation, the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of Australia announcing a rate cut in November is diminishing [2] - Market expectations for rate cuts have been severely impacted by the sharp increase in inflation [2] - However, there is an expectation that inflationary pressures may ease over the next 12 months, potentially allowing for rate cuts in the following year [2]