KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-31 00:28Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 financial results, showing a revenue of 128.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 64.63 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year. Q3 revenue was 39.06 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.6%, and net profit of 19.22 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [1]. Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's liquor revenue increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a release of pressure from industry demand shocks since May. However, the growth rate for series liquor significantly declined, with Q3 revenue dropping by 34.0% year-on-year [1]. - By product, Moutai liquor saw revenue growth of 9.3% for Q1-Q3 and 7.3% for Q3, with a slowdown attributed to changes in the delivery rhythm of offline direct sales channels [1]. - Series liquor experienced a revenue decline of 7.8% for Q1-Q3 and 34.0% for Q3, with expectations that only the 1935 product will maintain steady growth [1]. Channel Analysis - Q3 revenue from wholesale and direct sales channels showed a year-on-year increase of 14.4% and a decline of 14.9%, respectively, with direct sales accounting for 40% of total revenue, continuing to decrease quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The marginal acceleration in the distribution channel in Q3 was influenced by seasonal confirmation base fluctuations and smoother execution of Moutai quotas [2]. Financial Metrics - In Q3 2025, the company's net profit margin reached 50.0%, remaining stable year-on-year, supported by a slight increase in gross profit margin and effective cost control measures [2]. - Sales and management expenses decreased by 24.7% and 6.6% year-on-year, respectively, with management expenses continuing to contract throughout the year [2]. Strategic Adjustments - The company is focusing on supply-side transformation and channel optimization to enhance product adaptability and market reach. The current growth pressure is attributed to a high proportion of non-standard revenue and unstable sales of series liquor [3]. - By 2025, Moutai aims to establish a diversified ecosystem with 10 types of channels, enhancing coordination in its self-operated system while leveraging the advantages of its social distribution system [3]. Profit Forecast - Based on the Q3 2025 performance, the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 90.2 billion, 93.3 billion, and 97.0 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5%, 3%, and 4%, respectively [3].