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水羊股份(300740)2025年三季报点评:单季度收入增速环比向上 高奢美妆集团持续夯实

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, indicating a positive trend in its operations and market positioning [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.41 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 12% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 140 million yuan, up 44% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 130 million yuan, reflecting a 21.6% increase [1]. - The basic earnings per share (EPS) stood at 0.35 yuan [1]. Quarterly Breakdown - The quarterly revenue for Q1 to Q3 of 2025 was 1.09 billion yuan, 1.41 billion yuan, and 0.91 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +5.2%, +12.2%, and +20.9% respectively [1]. - The net profit for the same quarters was 40 million yuan, 80 million yuan, and 10 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +4.7%, +23.8%, and a turnaround from loss to profit [1]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 2.9 percentage points to 66% [2]. - The quarterly gross margins for Q1 to Q3 were 63.8%, 65.3%, and 69.8%, showing a consistent upward trend [2]. - The operating expense ratio increased by 2.3 percentage points to 60%, with specific rates for sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses being 50.5%, 5.6%, 2.2%, and 1.7% respectively [2]. Inventory and Receivables - As of September 2025, inventory decreased by 4.2% year-on-year to 880 million yuan, with a 6.3% increase compared to the beginning of the year [3]. - Accounts receivable also saw a year-on-year decrease of 6.4% to 410 million yuan, with a 19.4% increase from the start of the year [3]. - The inventory turnover days were 199 days, a reduction of 7 days year-on-year, while accounts receivable turnover days were 30 days, also down by 7 days [3]. Cash Flow and Future Outlook - The operating net cash flow for the first three quarters was 190 million yuan, indicating a positive shift to net inflow [3]. - The company is positioned as a high-end beauty group, with strong brand contributions and a dual-channel strategy driving quality growth [3]. - The profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 240 million yuan, 320 million yuan, and 410 million yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 32 and 24 for 2025 and 2026 [3].