有色板块涨势如虹：是短期炒作还是长期趋势？

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown strong performance this year, driven by supply-demand imbalances and financial attributes under a global monetary easing backdrop [1][2]. Supply Side Summary - Supply constraints are a core support for the industrial metals sector, with global copper supply disruptions becoming a norm. An incident at Indonesia's second-largest copper mine in September is expected to reduce its 2026 output by approximately 35%, with recovery not anticipated until 2027 [1]. - Reduced capital expenditure in the mining sector due to declining global economic growth may lead to production cuts in the coming years, emphasizing the importance of supply constraints [1]. - Geopolitical factors, such as new rare earth export control policies from the Ministry of Commerce, are also impacting global supply [1]. Demand Side Summary - Traditional metals like copper and aluminum are closely linked to manufacturing and real estate, with recent price fluctuations influenced by pessimistic demand expectations. However, new industries such as AI are expanding downstream demand for non-ferrous metals [2]. - Upgrades in traditional power demand and the growth of new energy sectors, including electric vehicles and batteries, are expected to drive future demand for non-ferrous metals [2]. - The overall supply-demand balance for non-ferrous metals is currently tight, providing support for industry growth [2]. Financial Environment Summary - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, with a 25 basis point cut in September, leading to expectations of further cuts. This environment reduces the risk-free return on dollar assets, potentially shifting market liquidity towards physical assets [2]. - A weaker dollar, resulting from Fed rate cuts, could benefit commodities priced in dollars, including copper and other major metals, while also favoring precious metals like gold [2]. Investment Perspective Summary - The long-term price recovery of non-ferrous metals is supported by the aforementioned factors, despite potential short-term volatility [3]. - Investors are encouraged to consider index-based tools for overall exposure, such as mining ETFs (561330) that cover key commodities like copper, gold, and rare earths, or focus on specific products like gold ETFs (518800) and gold stock ETFs (517400) [3]. - The growth of emerging industries and the tight supply-demand balance are expected to sustain sector attractiveness, with opportunities for strategic accumulation during short-term adjustments [3].