张尧浠：美降息前景预期较高、金价又一波牛市蓄势待发

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is high, which is likely to lead to another bullish phase for gold prices [1][5][6]. Market Performance - On October 30, international gold prices opened at $3930.35 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3915.33, and then rebounded to a high of $4026.81, closing at $4024.25, marking a daily increase of $93.9 or 2.39% [1][3]. Economic Indicators - The market is currently viewing the recent U.S.-China trade discussions as a temporary easing of tensions rather than a structural change, maintaining uncertainty in the market [3][5]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is estimated at 74.7%, indicating a strong likelihood of continued easing [5]. Geopolitical and Trade Factors - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and trade policies are expected to sustain demand for gold, both from private investors and central banks [6]. - The recent announcement by Trump to reduce tariffs from 57% to 47% is seen as having minimal impact, with the market's optimism regarding trade agreements viewed as short-lived [5]. Technical Analysis - The gold price is currently showing signs of a bullish trend, with a need for further upward momentum to maintain strength above the 30-day moving average [10]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3990 or $3965, while resistance levels are at $4075 or $4100 [10]. Future Outlook - The expectation is for gold prices to rise again in the coming months, driven by continued interest rate cuts and economic data that may support bullish sentiment [6][12].