铜价 维持高位震荡

Group 1: Copper Price Trends - In October, copper prices showed a strong overall trend, significantly rising after the National Day holiday due to increased overseas mining disruptions and heightened risk aversion [1] - Following a brief pullback, copper prices entered a phase of high-level fluctuations due to renewed tensions in the external environment [1] Group 2: Inflation Concerns - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking a 25 basis point cut, which is the second cut of the year [2] - Despite the rate cut, Powell indicated that short-term inflation remains under upward pressure, and there are risks to the job market, leading to mixed expectations regarding further rate cuts in December [2] - The overall macro market has stabilized, but potential negative factors for copper prices remain, influenced by financial attributes and inflation expectations [2] Group 3: Smelter Maintenance - Ongoing maintenance at smelters is expected to impact copper concentrate processing fees and demand, with significant maintenance planned for November affecting both crude and refined copper capacities [3] - The planned maintenance in November will reduce refined copper output by over 130,000 tons, tightening supply further [3] Group 4: End-User Demand Variations - Cable manufacturing companies have been operating below historical levels due to high copper prices, with expectations of stable operations in November [4] - The air conditioning industry typically sees increased production in November, but cautious procurement strategies have limited copper demand [4] - The automotive sector, particularly driven by electric vehicles, is expected to see continued growth in production and sales, boosting demand for copper [4] Group 5: Overall Market Outlook - The copper price is anticipated to maintain a high-level fluctuation trend in November [5]