LZYY(SH:603368) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-31 02:32Core Insights - The company's 9M25 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 15.758 billion and 646 million CNY, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.5% and 9.8% respectively [1] - The 3Q25 revenue showed a stable growth of 2.0% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 14.0% [1] - The decline in performance is primarily due to the impact of centralized procurement policies on the pharmaceutical wholesale business, leading to a temporary decrease in hospital drug sales [1][2] Financial Performance - 9M25 industrial revenue was 860 million CNY, with a net profit of 123 million CNY, reflecting a growth of 6.44% but a decline in net profit by 13.38% year-on-year [2] - The wholesale revenue for 9M25 was 12.236 billion CNY, with a net profit of 405 million CNY, down 3.79% and 11.25% year-on-year respectively [2] - Retail revenue for 9M25 was 2.591 billion CNY, with a net profit of 117 million CNY, showing stable growth of 8.17% and a slight increase in net profit by 0.23% year-on-year [2] Margin and Cash Flow - The gross margin for 9M25 was 10.88%, a decrease of 0.88 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the impact of centralized procurement [3] - Operating cash flow improved year-on-year, with a net cash flow of 135 million CNY, an increase of 10.1% [3] Business Outlook - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with expectations for net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025-2027 projected at 770 million, 800 million, and 820 million CNY respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 9.4% to 10.8% [4] - The estimated EPS for 2026 is projected at 1.94 CNY, with specific estimates for industrial, wholesale, and retail businesses being 0.68 CNY, 1.18 CNY, and 0.14 CNY respectively [4] - Target price is set at 21.70 CNY, down from the previous 23.61 CNY, with corresponding valuations for industrial, wholesale, and retail businesses at 13x, 10x, and 11x respectively [4]