老白干酒(600559)：Q3业绩承压 省内韧性更强

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, attributed to weak market demand and external environmental pressures, but remains optimistic about future growth due to ongoing product, channel, and brand reforms [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, total revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 3.33 billion, 400 million, and 360 million respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 18.5%, 28.0%, and 30.0% [1]. - In Q3 2025, total revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 850 million, 80 million, and 70 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 47.5%, 68.5%, and 72.3% [1]. Product and Market Analysis - The company's white liquor business generated 3.31 billion in revenue for Q1-Q3 2025, down 18.5% year-on-year, with premium products (over 100 yuan) performing better than lower-priced products [2]. - In Q3 2025, the white liquor business revenue was 840 million, a decline of 47.7% year-on-year, with premium products down 46.7% and lower-priced products down 48.7% [2]. - Revenue from different regions for Q1-Q3 2025 showed declines, with Hebei at 2.02 billion (-13.8%), Hunan at 640 million (-20.2%), Anhui at 300 million (-34.7%), Shandong at 140 million (-21.4%), and other provinces at 200 million (-29.5%) [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 increased by 0.1 percentage points to 66.3%, while Q3 2025 saw a decline of 5.4 percentage points to 61.4% [3]. - Selling expense ratio for Q1-Q3 2025 increased by 0.2 percentage points to 26.6%, while Q3 2025 decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 23.7% [3]. - The net profit margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 12.0%, down 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, and for Q3 2025, it was 9.4%, down 6.2 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance quality and efficiency through multi-brand collaboration and expects gradual improvement in operational performance as market conditions stabilize [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 4.41 billion, 4.59 billion, and 4.87 billion, reflecting year-on-year changes of -17.7%, +4.1%, and +6.1% respectively [4]. - The estimated EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.65, 0.71, and 0.78 yuan, with a target price set at 19.88 yuan based on a 28x PE ratio for 2026 [4].