AI牛市，开始“去伪存真”

Core Viewpoint - ZTE Corporation's Q3 2025 financial report reveals a significant decline in net profit despite a modest revenue increase, raising concerns about its future performance and market sentiment [1][4][10]. Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, ZTE achieved revenue of 28.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, but below market expectations; cumulative revenue for the first three quarters reached 100.52 billion yuan, up 11.6% [1][2]. - The company's revenue breakdown shows network, government enterprise, and consumer businesses contributing 50%, 25%, and 25% respectively [2]. Business Transition - ZTE is undergoing a strategic transformation focusing on AI servers, data centers, and consumer electronics, shifting from a "connectivity" model to a "connectivity + computing" model [3]. - The government enterprise business has seen rapid growth, with a 130% increase in the first three quarters, while computing business revenue grew by 180% [3]. Profitability Concerns - The net profit for Q3 2025 was only 260 million yuan, a drastic decline of 87.8%, with a non-recurring net profit dropping to -230 million yuan [4][5]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to a shift in business structure leading to lower overall gross margins, with computing business margins around 8% compared to over 50% for traditional operator business [5][6]. Market Reaction - Following the disappointing earnings report, ZTE's stock price fell by 6.5% on October 29 and continued to decline by 3% the next day, reflecting negative market sentiment [1][10]. - The stock had previously surged over 40% since August, driven by significant orders and strategic shifts, but the recent earnings drop has led to a reevaluation of its valuation [9][10]. Future Outlook - The company's ability to maintain its AI narrative hinges on technological breakthroughs and commercialization in its chip subsidiary, which are crucial for overcoming current profitability challenges [11][12]. - The market is increasingly focused on short-term performance and profitability, moving away from speculative narratives, which places additional pressure on ZTE's AI transition [11][13].