Analysts Expect Strong Q3 for Coinbase But Disagree Sharply on Its Future

Core Viewpoint - Coinbase is expected to report strong third-quarter earnings, with analysts predicting a significant increase in both earnings per share and revenue compared to the previous year [1] Revenue Expectations - Analysts estimate Coinbase will report earnings per share (EPS) of $1.14, up from $0.28 in Q3 last year, and revenue of $1.8 billion, an increase from $1.2 billion in the same period of 2024 [1] Analyst Perspectives - JP Morgan's Kenneth Worthington is optimistic, upgrading Coinbase to "Overweight" with a price target of $404 for December 2026, driven by the potential launch of a Base token that could add significant equity value [3] - Barclays' Benjamin Budish shares a positive revenue outlook but maintains an "Equal Weight" rating, forecasting adjusted EBITDA to be 6% above consensus, with total Q3 transaction revenue estimated at $1.05 billion [5][6] - Compass Point's Ed Engel is more cautious, maintaining a "Sell" rating due to concerns over lower-margin subscription revenues and the impact of USDC and staking payouts on profitability [7] Market Dynamics - Worthington believes the Base token could command a market cap between $12 billion to $34 billion, potentially adding $14 to $42 per share in equity value for Coinbase [3] - Engel expresses skepticism about the Base token's potential, indicating a lack of conviction in its long-term impact [8]