下周金价看点：15 年历史走势或重现，提前做好心理准备不踩坑

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the gold market have been dramatic, with prices reaching a historical high of $4,381 per ounce on October 20, followed by a sharp decline to below $3,900 per ounce by October 28, marking a significant drop of nearly $500 and the largest single-day decline in 12 years [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold Price Decline - The decrease in global "risk aversion" sentiment has played a crucial role, as positive developments in U.S.-China trade relations and signs of easing in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have reduced the urgency for investors to seek gold as a safe haven [2][4]. - Technical selling pressure has emerged, with early investors cashing in on profits after a significant price increase from around $3,600 to nearly $4,400 per ounce, leading to a chain reaction of sell-offs [4][5]. - The breach of the psychological and technical support level of $4,000 triggered automated selling orders, further exacerbating the price decline as many investors had set strategies to sell upon reaching this threshold [5][6]. Group 2: Impact on Related Markets - The silver market has also experienced a significant drop, with prices falling from approximately $54 per ounce to around $46, reflecting a 16% decline, which is closely tied to the movements in the gold market [6][7]. - Changes in central bank attitudes towards gold have been noted, with some officials suggesting a reconsideration of high gold reserves, potentially leading to selling pressure that could further impact gold prices [7][8]. Group 3: Domestic Market Reactions - Domestic gold jewelry and investment bar prices have adjusted downward in response to international price changes, providing opportunities for consumers who were previously deterred by high prices [8][10]. - The adjustment in investment bar prices offers new reference points for potential investors, encouraging them to reassess their entry into the gold market [10][11]. Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Different institutions have varying outlooks on gold prices, with some analysts predicting further declines due to improved trade agreement expectations and potential government shutdown resolutions, while others maintain that long-term upward trends remain intact due to ongoing global uncertainties [12][13]. - HSBC and Standard Chartered have raised their long-term price forecasts, citing strong demand from central banks and geopolitical risks as key factors supporting gold prices [14][15].