罗志恒：中美吉隆坡经贸磋商——谈成什么？还剩什么？未来如何？

Core Points - The meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. in Busan on October 30 focused on enhancing economic and trade cooperation, marking a new phase in U.S.-China economic relations [1][2] - The recent negotiations resulted in a series of mutually beneficial arrangements, temporarily easing tensions and indicating a shift from cautious responses to strategic interactions [1][8] Summary of Key Issues A. Outcomes of the Kuala Lumpur Economic Negotiations 1. The U.S. agreed to cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods [3] 2. The U.S. will continue to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariffs for one year and extend certain tariff exclusion measures [3] 3. The U.S. will pause the implementation of the 50% export control rule for one year [3] 4. The U.S. will suspend the 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year [3] B. China's Corresponding Adjustments 1. China will adjust its countermeasures against the U.S. "fentanyl tariff" [4] 2. China will continue to suspend the 24% counter-tariffs for one year and extend certain tariff exclusion measures [4] 3. China will pause the implementation of new export control measures related to rare earths for one year [4] 4. China will also suspend its countermeasures against the U.S. regarding port service fees for one year [4] C. Unresolved Issues 1. The U.S. retains a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, despite reducing some tariffs [6] 2. The average tariff rate on U.S. imports from China remains high, with estimates around 30% [7] 3. The U.S. continues to impose restrictions on high-tech industries, including semiconductors and electric vehicles [7] D. Dynamics of U.S.-China Economic Competition 1. The trade conflict resembles a repeated prisoner's dilemma, where both sides benefit from cooperation but suffer from conflict [8] 2. The U.S. has shown weaknesses in its strategy, particularly in agriculture and rare earths, which are critical to its economy [10] 3. The ongoing negotiations are expected to be long-term and challenging, with both sides needing to strengthen their negotiating positions [11][12]