Group 1 - UBS released a performance review report on China Hongqiao Group, focusing on its core subsidiary Shandong Hongqiao's Q3 2025 performance, which exceeded expectations, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Shandong Hongqiao's net profit for the first nine months of 2025 reached 19.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%, achieving 87% of the market consensus for 2025 and 84% of UBS's forecast [1] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was estimated at 6.9 billion yuan, a 17% year-on-year increase, surpassing UBS's previous estimate of 6.5 billion yuan, with overall performance slightly exceeding market expectations by 5-7% [1] Group 2 - Factors impacting performance included an 11 billion yuan gross profit change due to fluctuations in aluminum and alumina profit margins, alongside a 1 billion yuan reduction in selling, general, and administrative expenses, although income from joint ventures decreased by 300 million yuan [1] - UBS maintains a positive outlook for the aluminum industry over the next two years, anticipating continued growth in aluminum demand and overall industry profitability, with China Hongqiao positioned as an industry leader with significant scale advantages [1] - UBS forecasts diluted earnings per share (EPS) for China Hongqiao at 2.66 yuan, 3.12 yuan, and 3.33 yuan for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, all above market consensus, with stable revenue projections around 1.6 trillion yuan from 2025E to 2029E [2]
瑞银：中国宏桥Q3业绩超预期 维持“买入”评级