Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is transitioning from a "preventive rate cut" approach to a "wait-and-see" stance, leading to increased uncertainty in short-term policy paths [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% during the October meeting, amidst a complex backdrop due to the U.S. government shutdown affecting key employment data [2] - The decision reflects a proactive approach to mitigate potential job market downturns, despite stable private sector employment indicators [2][3] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are growing, with some members advocating for more aggressive cuts while others suggest pausing [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The market's expectation for a December rate cut has decreased from 82.4% to 63.8% following the October meeting, indicating a shift in sentiment [1] - The upcoming December decision will heavily depend on employment and inflation data post-government shutdown, with a focus on whether job market indicators show significant improvement [1][3] - Recent easing of U.S.-China trade tensions may alleviate inflationary pressures from tariffs, presenting a potential positive factor for the economy [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The Federal Reserve announced it will stop balance sheet reduction starting December 1, as liquidity tightening signals have emerged in the U.S. money market [4] - Since the initiation of balance sheet reduction in June 2022, the Fed's balance sheet has contracted by $2.2 trillion, reducing its GDP ratio from 35% to approximately 21% [4] - The dollar index has shown signs of a rebound, and with the Fed's hawkish signals, market volatility risks are expected to increase, potentially impacting metal prices and emerging market assets [5]
交银国际：美联储预防式降息延续 短期政策路径不确定性预计将有所上升