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山东高速(600350):济荷高速收入高增 业绩符合预期

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Expressway reported a revenue of 16.841 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 15.4% [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters was 2.619 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, meeting expectations [2] - Toll revenue showed steady growth, driving the increase in net profit. The toll revenue for the first three quarters reached 7.877 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.08% [2] - By segment, the Jiqing Expressway generated toll revenue of 2.48 billion yuan, up 1.5% year-on-year; the Jingtai Expressway had toll revenue of 1.49 billion yuan, down 7.94% year-on-year; and the Jihe Expressway saw toll revenue of 1.02 billion yuan, up 178.59% year-on-year [2] Transportation Sector Performance - The rail transit segment showed stable growth, with total revenue of 3.953 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 11.82%, and a net profit of 329 million yuan, up 0.3% year-on-year [2] - The profit growth rate was slightly lower than the revenue growth rate, primarily due to the company's pricing strategies, which resulted in revenue growth outpacing profit growth during the expansion phase [2] Future Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits attributable to the parent company to be 3.383 billion yuan, 3.638 billion yuan, and 3.706 billion yuan for 2025E-2027E, corresponding to PE ratios of 13, 12, and 12 times respectively [2] - The company maintains an "Overweight" rating for Shandong Expressway [2]