TKGF(SH:601233) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-31 06:30Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, but a significant increase in net profit, indicating a strong recovery in profitability despite lower sales volumes and prices [1][3]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 232.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.51%, while net profit reached 4.52 billion yuan, marking a substantial turnaround from losses [1]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was 673.97 billion yuan, down 11.38% year-on-year, with a net profit of 15.49 billion yuan, up 53.83% [1]. - The average selling price of polyester filament was 6,320 yuan/ton, down 10.4% year-on-year, while PTA revenue was 51.2 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.3% [1]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company’s comprehensive gross margin improved to 5.81%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs [1]. - In Q3 2025, the gross margin decreased to 4.0%, down 2.0 percentage points from the previous quarter, due to rising costs of key raw materials [2]. Industry Position and Strategy - The company maintains its position as the largest polyester filament producer globally, with a complete supply chain from raw materials to finished products [3]. - The company has invested in upstream resources, including a 20% stake in Zhejiang Petrochemical, and is developing coal gas projects to enhance its production capabilities [3]. - The company plans to achieve full integration of its supply chain by 2026-2027, which includes coal, oil, and gas resources [3]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 19.6 billion, 25.3 billion, and 30.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.81, 1.05, and 1.29 yuan [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 18, 14, and 11 for the next three years, maintaining an "overweight" investment rating [3].