美的集团(000333)：Q3收入业绩持续稳健增长

Core Insights - Midea Group reported a total revenue of 364.72 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 37.88 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 112.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9%, and a net profit of 11.87 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.9% increase year-on-year [1] - The company's smart home business is expected to benefit from the old-for-new policy, while its OBM business is anticipated to accelerate expansion in emerging markets, indicating a positive outlook for continued growth [1] Revenue Performance - In the C-end business, domestic sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines saw year-on-year changes of -9.3%, +5.1%, and +2.3% respectively in Q3 2025, influenced by national subsidy limits in certain regions [1] - The B-end business showed strong performance with revenue growth rates of 21%, 25%, and 9% for new energy and industrial technology, smart building technology, and robotics and automation respectively from Q1 to Q3 2025 [1] Profitability and Margins - Q3 gross margin improved by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced online price competition for air conditioners and an increase in the proportion of overseas sales [2] - The net profit margin for Q3 was 10.6%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in foreign exchange gains and losses and an increase in the proportion of income tax expenses [2] - The company’s total expense ratio decreased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved efficiency in expense management [2] Cash Flow and Financial Health - Operating cash flow for Q3 decreased by 6.99 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly due to a drop in cash received from sales of goods and services [2] - As of the end of Q3 2025, other current liabilities increased by 12.87 billion yuan year-on-year, providing a buffer for future operations [2] Investment Outlook - Midea Group has established a balanced business matrix focusing on both consumer and business sectors, which enhances its resilience and positions it for sustained market outperformance [3] - The projected EPS for Midea Group for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.78 yuan, 6.31 yuan, and 6.92 yuan respectively, maintaining a buy rating with a 12-month target price of 94.68 yuan, corresponding to a 15 times dynamic P/E ratio for 2026 [3]