航材股份(688563)：看好特种材料龙头长期发展

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in Q3 revenue and net profit due to delayed military product demand, but remains optimistic about returning to stable growth as a leading platform for specialty materials [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached 679 million yuan, down 1.14% year-on-year and 4.09% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 120 million yuan, down 4.01% year-on-year and 17.62% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue totaled 2.039 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.14%, while net profit was 400 million yuan, an 8.23% year-on-year increase [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 30.82%, a decrease of 2.23 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to changes in product mix [1]. Research and Development - R&D investment in Q3 was 53.31 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.54%, indicating a commitment to innovation despite short-term profit declines [1][2]. Market Demand and Procurement - As of Q3 2025, accounts payable increased by 11.39% to 726 million yuan, and prepayments surged by 90% to 106 million yuan, suggesting resilient downstream demand [2]. - The company is actively exploring new growth areas, including low-altitude economy and advanced materials for military and civilian applications [2]. Business Development and Product Lines - The company is a key supplier of titanium alloy castings for international civil aviation, with a comprehensive product range [3]. - It has developed core technologies in rubber and sealing materials, achieving international advanced and domestic leading levels [3]. - The company is also involved in the production of transparent components for advanced fighter jets and is expanding its capacity in high-temperature alloy materials [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 estimates net profits of 615 million, 736 million, and 885 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.37, 1.64, and 1.97 yuan [4]. - The target price has been adjusted to 59.04 yuan, based on a projected PE ratio of 36 for 2026, reflecting the company's technological advantages and strong resource backing [4].