森马服饰(002563)：25Q3业绩回暖 费用控制良好

Core Insights - The company reported a year-on-year revenue increase of 7.31% and a net profit increase of 4.55% in Q3 2025, indicating a recovery in quarterly profits [1] - The gross margin has shown a steady increase, while the control of expenses has led to a significant reduction in the growth rate of expenses compared to previous quarters [2] - The company is focusing on retail transformation, brand management, overseas expansion, and enhancing channel capabilities [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 9.84 billion, 537 million, and 515 million respectively, with year-on-year changes of +4.74%, -28.90%, and -29.83% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 3.695 billion, 212 million, and 219 million respectively, with year-on-year changes of +7.31%, +4.55%, and +13.11% [1] Margin and Expense Analysis - The gross margin and net margin for Q1-Q3 2025 were 45.12% and 5.38%, showing year-on-year changes of +0.36% and -2.62 percentage points [2] - In Q3 2025, the gross margin and net margin were 42.50% and 5.69%, with year-on-year changes of +0.06% and -0.17 percentage points [2] - The total expense ratio increased by 1.24 percentage points year-on-year, but the growth rate compared to the previous quarter significantly decreased [2] Cash Flow and Inventory Management - The net cash flow from operating activities in Q3 2025 was -208 million, indicating short-term cash flow challenges [2] - As of the end of Q3 2025, inventory turnover days were 191 days, an increase of 11 days year-on-year, while accounts receivable turnover days were 42 days, an increase of 4 days year-on-year [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 15.355 billion, 16.393 billion, and 17.542 billion for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 7%, and 7% respectively [3] - The projected net profits for the same period are 944 million, 1.07 billion, and 1.2 billion, with year-on-year changes of -17%, +13%, and +12% respectively [3] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 15X for 2025 and 13X for 2026, maintaining a strong buy recommendation [3]