四季度起终端零售有望持续改善 期待后期 盈利弹性 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据之前的三季报和目前的草根跟踪，我们调整盈利预测（上调了未来 3 年森马和巴 拉品牌的线上增速，下调了销售费用率和管理费用率），预计 2025-2027 年每股收 益分别为 0.36、0.44 和 0.53 元（原预测为为 0.32、0.42 和 0.52 元），参考可比公 司，给予 2026 年 16 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 7.04 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 国内可选消费复苏低于预期，天气异常波动对服饰消费可能影响，公司费用控制力 度和节奏低于预期等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 13,661 | 14,626 | 15,565 | 16,786 | 18,084 | | 同比增长 (%) | 2.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,505 | 1,548 | 1,32 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨森马服饰（002563.SZ） [Table_Title] 森马服饰 2025Q3 业绩点评：增长韧性优于同 业，销售费用拖累净利润 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 展望未来，公司夯实基础，全域化、控折扣、降库存均取得成效。预计短期内受益于生育补贴 政策情绪催化，巴拉终端零售有望受到提振，增益业绩表现，叠加后续新零售改革逐步取得成 效，公司逆势开店后续有望带来一定的收入和业绩弹性增量。预计公司 2025-2027 归母净利润 为 9.4、10.3、11.1 亿元，分别同比-17%、+9%、+8%，对应 PE 为 15、14、13X，维持"买 入"评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于旭辉 魏杏梓 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524020003 SFC：BUU942 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 森马服饰（002563.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 森马服 ...

Market Overview - In October, the A-share textile and apparel sector outperformed the broader market, with textile manufacturing performing better than branded apparel. Since November, the sector has continued to show strong performance, with branded apparel increasing by 3.4% and textile manufacturing by 2.9% [1][12] - The Hong Kong textile and apparel index fell by 4.9% in October but has since turned positive in November [1][19] Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing in September grew by 4.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points [1][21] - E-commerce showed strong performance in October, with all categories experiencing month-on-month growth. Outdoor apparel led year-on-year growth, with sportswear, outdoor wear, leisure wear, home textiles, and personal care products showing growth rates of 0%, +19%, 0%, +1%, and +2% respectively [1][21] - Leading brands in sportswear included Lululemon (+88%), Asics (+47%), and Descente (+35%). In outdoor brands, Kailas (+55%), Berghaus (+41%), and Camel (+39%) showed strong growth. In leisure wear, Dazzle (+93%), Li Ning (+85%), and Xuezhongfei (+49%) experienced rapid growth [1][21] Textile Manufacturing Insights - On a macro level, the textile export growth in October was impacted by high base effects from the previous year, with Vietnam's textile exports declining by 1.0% year-on-year and China's textile exports down by 9.1% [1][21] - Cotton prices showed slight increases in October (+0.7%) while wool prices decreased significantly (-20.9% month-on-month) [1][21] - On a micro level, Taiwanese companies reported mixed revenue performances in October, but outlooks remain optimistic. Companies like Ju Hong expect revenue recovery in Q4, while Wei Hong has strong demand driven by the upcoming World Cup [1][21] Investment Recommendations - Focus on textile manufacturing rebound and consumer innovation opportunities. The fourth-quarter orders in textile manufacturing are expected to recover, suggesting a potential turnaround for companies facing difficulties [3][6] - Key companies to watch include Shenzhou International, which benefits from tariff reductions and Nike's recovery, and Huayi Group, which is seeing continuous improvement in profitability [6][7] Key Company Performance Predictions - Shenzhou International: Maintain "Outperform" rating with an estimated EPS of 4.37 in 2025 and 4.96 in 2026 [7] - Huayi Group: Maintain "Outperform" rating with an estimated EPS of 2.85 in 2025 and 3.48 in 2026 [7] - Kai Run Co.: Maintain "Outperform" rating with an estimated EPS of 1.52 in 2025 and 1.78 in 2026 [7] - New Australia Co.: Maintain "Outperform" rating with an estimated EPS of 0.63 in 2025 and 0.71 in 2026 [7]

Market Overview - In October, the A-share textile and apparel sector outperformed the broader market, with textile manufacturing performing better than branded apparel. Since November, the sector has continued to show strong performance, with branded apparel increasing by 3.4% and textile manufacturing by 2.9% [1][12] - The Hong Kong textile and apparel index fell by 4.9% in October but has since turned positive in November [1][19] Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing in September grew by 4.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points [1][21] - E-commerce showed strong performance in October, with all categories experiencing month-on-month growth. Outdoor apparel led year-on-year growth, with sportswear, outdoor wear, leisure wear, home textiles, and personal care products showing growth rates of 0%, 19%, 0%, 1%, and 2% respectively [1][21] - Leading brands in sportswear included Lululemon (88%), Asics (47%), and Descente (35%). In outdoor brands, Kailas (55%), Berghaus (41%), and Camel (39%) showed strong growth [1][21] Textile Manufacturing Insights - On a macro level, the textile export growth in October was negatively impacted by high base effects from the previous year, with Vietnam's textile exports declining by 1.0% year-on-year and China's textile exports down by 9.1% [1][21] - Cotton prices showed slight increases in October, while wool prices decreased significantly, down 20.9% month-on-month and 6.8% year-on-year [1][21] - Taiwanese companies in the textile sector are optimistic about future revenue, with several companies expecting a recovery in orders and revenue in the fourth quarter [1][6] Investment Recommendations - Focus on textile manufacturing rebound and consumer innovation opportunities. The fourth quarter is expected to see a recovery in orders, with diminishing tariff impacts and stabilizing order placements [3][6] - Key companies to watch include Shenzhou International, Huayi Group, and Kai Run Co., which are expected to benefit from improved order visibility and market demand [3][6][7] - In branded apparel, the report recommends focusing on high-end segments and brands in the sports and outdoor categories, highlighting Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Tebu International as key players [3][6]

转自：前瞻产业研究院 行业主要上市公司：三夫户外(002780.SZ);探路者(300005.SZ);安踏(02020.HK);英派斯(002899.SZ);舒华 体育(605299.SH);信隆健康(002105.SZ);华立科技(301011.SZ)等 本文核心数据：上市公司业务布局;上市公司业绩对比 个人冰雪装备行业上市公司汇总 中国冰雪装备产业上市公司数量较少，业务聚焦两大方向。一类围绕户外运动，如安踏探路者等研发销 售滑雪服雪具等装备，三夫户外布局装备零售与滑雪服务;另一类专注冰雪设施建设，英派斯打造仿真 冰场滑雪模拟机，冰山冷热雪人股份提供场馆制冰系统与设备，多依托政策与需求推进国产化发展。 图表 1: 2025年中国个人冰雪装备产业上市公司汇总(一) | 产业链 | 公司简称 | 股票代码 | 要点 | 关联度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上游材料研 | | | 高性能改性塑料领军企业,1999年成立,2018年深交 | | | 发 | 南京聚隆 | 300644.SZ | 所上市,专注于改性塑料研发、生产与销售,产品应用 | ★★☆ | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Semir Apparel's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a recent increase of 2.09%, while the company faces a year-to-date decline of 10.12% in stock value [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Semir Apparel reported a revenue of 9.844 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.74%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 28.90% to 537 million yuan [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 12.585 billion yuan, with 2.694 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Semir Apparel reached 49,900, an increase of 20.28% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person decreased by 16.86% to 44,299 shares [2]. - The seventh largest circulating shareholder, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holds 87.3554 million shares, a decrease of 84.364 million shares compared to the previous period [3]. Market Activity - As of November 10, 2025, Semir Apparel's stock was trading at 5.86 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 15.787 billion yuan. The trading volume reached 210 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.65% [1]. - The net inflow of main funds was 11.3157 million yuan, with large orders accounting for 21.31% of purchases and 15.11% of sales [1].

Core Points - Semir Apparel announced that its major shareholder, Qiu Jianqiang, pledged 66.5 million shares for personal needs, which accounts for 18.5% of his holdings and 2.47% of the company's total share capital [1] - After this pledge, Qiu Jianqiang holds a total of 359 million shares, representing 13.34% of the company's total share capital [1] - Following the latest pledge, Qiu Jianqiang has cumulatively pledged 138 million shares, which is 38.47% of his total holdings [1]

一、股东股份解除质押及质押情况 截至公告披露日，上述股东及其一致行动人所持质押股份情况如下： 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：002563 证券简称：森马服饰 公告编号：2025-30 浙江森马服饰股份有限公司关于公司 股东股份解除质押及质押的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 浙江森马服饰股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）近日接到股东邱坚强先生的通知，获悉邱坚强先生所持 有本公司的部分股份办理了解除质押及质押，具体事项如下： 1、董监高每日持股变化明细 特此公告 浙江森马服饰股份有限公司董事会 二〇二五年十一月八日 1、股东股份解除质押基本情况 ■ 2、股东股份质押基本情况 ■ 二、股东股份累计质押情况 ■ 注：若出现合计数尾数与各分项数字之和尾数不一致的情况，均为四舍五入原因造成。 三、其他情况说明 上述股东资信状况良好，具备相应的资金偿还能力，质押股份风险可控，目前不存在平仓风险或被强制 过户风险。上述股份质押事项不会对上市公司生产经营、公司治理等产生重大影响，也不会导致公司实 际控制权发生变更，质押的股份不涉 ...

北京商报讯（记者 张君花）11月7日，森马服饰发布公告称，近日股东邱坚强部分股份办理解除质押及 质押。其解除质押6500万股，占其所持股份18.08%，占总股本2.41%；质押6650万股，占其所持股份 18.50%，占总股本2.47%，质押用途为个人需求。截至公告披露日，邱坚强累计质押1.38亿股，占其所 持股份38.47%，占总股本5.13%。上述股东资信良好，质押风险可控，不会对公司产生重大影响，也不 会导致控制权变更。 ...

证券日报网讯森马服饰（002563）11月7日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司自上市以来始终致 力于发展服饰主业。在立足服饰主业健康发展的同时，希望通过各种方式对未来在服饰等相关领域有可 能形成大业务的细分市场投资，为投资者提供长期、持续、稳定的回报。 ...