证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 服装家纺 费用投放致利润波动，蓄力中期成长 ——森马服饰点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 公司发布 25 年一季报，25Q1 实现收入 30.8 亿元，同比-1.9%，归母净利润/扣 非归母净利润 2.1/1.9 亿元，分别同比-38.2%/-42.7%，在零售环境波动和异常天 气影响下，公司延续 24 年积极开店和开展品牌营销的动作，加大费用投放致使 利润率短期承压，期待零售环境好转公司业绩弹性释放。 ❑ 预计 25Q1 受加盟业务拖累收入略有下滑 回顾 24 年分渠道来看，24 年直营、加盟收入分别同比+12.6%、+5.1%至 15.5、 60.8 亿元，门店数量分别净开+299、+96 至 980、7260 家，预计 25Q1 延续 24 年 加盟业务弱于直营的趋势，并且预计受 25 年春节有所提前，部分加盟商在 24Q4 提前拿货影响，25Q1 批发业务有所下滑拖累整体收入表现。 ❑ 费用投放增加致利润暂时承压，存货增长致现金流波动 25Q1 毛利率/销售费用率/管理费用率/研发费用率/财务费用率分别 +0.4pct/+4.1pct/+0.7pct/-0.1pct/+1.2pc ...

毛利率 47%，同比持平，归母净利率 7%，同比-4pct； 销售费率 29%，同比+4pct；管理费率 5%，同比+1pct；研发费率 1%，同比 持平；财务费率同比-0.85%，同比+1pct。 公司报告 | 季报点评 森马服饰（002563） 证券研究报告 育儿补贴制度或利好童装业务 公司发布 25 年一季报 营收 31 亿，同比-2%，归母净利润 2 亿，同比-38%，扣非归母净利润 2 亿， 同比-43%； 截至 3 月 31 日，包括加盟和直营在内的全系统终端动态零售数据同比中个 位数增加。 育儿补贴制度或利好童装业务 3 月 13 日，内蒙古呼和浩特及时出台实施育儿补贴细则，据国家卫生健康 委，截至 24 年 10 月，全国已有 23 个省份，在不同层级开始探索实施生 育补贴制度，或一次性发放现金，或定期给予补贴、实行税收减免。生育 补贴政策落地后，从宏观层面看，有望带来生育率的回升，从而利好童装。 零售转型，供应链提质 2025 年，公司将继续围绕核心关键能力深化布局，持续提升和构建洞察消 费者能力、高效的商品运营能力、精准的商品开发能力、广泛的渠道分发 能力、全面的供应链能力等关键能力。 公 ...

公司报告 | 季报点评 森马服饰（002563） 证券研究报告 育儿补贴制度或利好童装业务 公司发布 25 年一季报 营收 31 亿，同比-2%，归母净利润 2 亿，同比-38%，扣非归母净利润 2 亿， 同比-43%； 截至 3 月 31 日，包括加盟和直营在内的全系统终端动态零售数据同比中个 位数增加。 毛利率 47%，同比持平，归母净利率 7%，同比-4pct； 销售费率 29%，同比+4pct；管理费率 5%，同比+1pct；研发费率 1%，同比 持平；财务费率同比-0.85%，同比+1pct。 育儿补贴制度或利好童装业务 3 月 13 日，内蒙古呼和浩特及时出台实施育儿补贴细则，据国家卫生健康 委，截至 24 年 10 月，全国已有 23 个省份，在不同层级开始探索实施生 育补贴制度，或一次性发放现金，或定期给予补贴、实行税收减免。生育 补贴政策落地后，从宏观层面看，有望带来生育率的回升，从而利好童装。 公司将继续以创新驱动发展，坚持零售转型的方向，优化单店盈利模型， 迭代 52 周 MD 机制，实现商品的精准规划与高效流转；持续强化对消费者 的洞察能力，深入了解消费者的偏好、需求和购买行为，提升商 ...

纺织服饰/服装家纺 森马服饰（002563.SZ） 2025Q1 终端零售稳步增长，短期费用扰动利润增速 2025 年 05 月 01 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 5.62 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 7.48/4.34 | | 总市值(亿元) | 151.41 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 123.74 | | 总股本(亿股) | 26.94 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 22.02 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 44.5 | 信 息 更 新 报 告 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 森马服饰 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024 年分红比例提升，库存结构 改善奠定增长基础—公司信息更新 报告》-2025.4.2 《2022 年业绩承压，期待轻装上阵 &开店下业绩修复—公司信息更新 报告》-2023.4.6 ——公司信息更新报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 1 / 4 | 吕明（分析师） 周嘉乐（分析师） 张霜凝（分析师 ...

森马服饰（002563.SZ） 2025Q1 终端零售稳步增长，短期费用扰动利润增速 2025 年 05 月 01 日 纺织服饰/服装家纺 投资评级：买入（维持） 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 森马服饰 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024 年分红比例提升，库存结构 改善奠定增长基础—公司信息更新 报告》-2025.4.2 《2022 年业绩承压，期待轻装上阵 &开店下业绩修复—公司信息更新 报告》-2023.4.6 ——公司信息更新报告 | 吕明（分析师） 周嘉乐（分析师） 张霜凝（分析师） | | | --- | --- | | lvming@kysec.cn zhoujiale@kysec.cn zhangshuangning@kysec.cn | | | 证书编号：S0790520030002 证书编号：S0790522030002 证书编号：S0790524070006 | | |  2025Q1 业绩短期承压，看好门店提质增效修复业绩表现，维持"买入"评级 | | | 2025Q1 公司实现营收 30.8 亿元（同比-1.9%） ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Semir Fashion was established in 2002, focusing on casual and children's clothing, with major brands including Semir for adults and Balabala for children [8] - Semir brand, founded in 1996, emphasizes comfort and quality, while Balabala, established in 2002, targets children aged 0-14, positioning itself for middle-income families [8] - Semir has become a leading domestic casual wear brand, while Balabala holds a dominant market share in children's clothing [8] Group 2: Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of CNY 3.08 billion, a decrease of 1.93% from CNY 3.14 billion in the same period last year [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 214.37 million, down 38.12% from CNY 346.44 million year-on-year [9] - The net cash flow from operating activities fell by 81.71% to CNY 152.53 million, primarily due to increased payments for goods [10] Group 3: Inventory and Assets - As of March 31, 2025, inventory stood at CNY 3.35 billion, a decrease of CNY 134 million from the beginning of the period, but an increase of CNY 760 million compared to the same time last year [10] - The proportion of inventory items with a one-year turnover increased from 55% to 72%, indicating improved inventory health [10] - Monetary assets remained stable at CNY 8.65 billion, ensuring sufficient liquidity for ongoing operations [10] Group 4: Profitability and Expenses - The gross profit margin for the period was 47%, slightly up by 0.37 percentage points compared to the previous year [10] - Sales expenses increased by CNY 111 million, primarily due to higher advertising and service costs [11] - Management expenses rose by CNY 20 million, while financial expenses decreased by CNY 39 million [10] Group 5: Store Operations - During the reporting period, the company opened 172 stores and closed 229, resulting in a total of 8,268 stores as of March 31, 2025 [11] - The breakdown includes 2,779 adult clothing stores and 5,489 children's clothing stores, with 960 direct-operated, 74 joint-operated, and 7,234 franchised stores [11] Group 6: Retail Performance - In Q1, overall retail sales, both online and offline, showed single-digit growth year-on-year [12] - Sales continued to improve in April, maintaining a mid-to-high single-digit growth rate across the entire retail system [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected PE of 14 times for 2025 [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.08 billion yuan and a net profit of 210 million yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2% and 38% respectively [1]. - The retail channel is expected to show steady growth, with a cautious accounting approach leading to better performance in retail sales compared to revenue [2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its store structure, with a net increase of 299 direct stores and 96 franchise stores expected in 2024 [2]. - The children's clothing segment is anticipated to grow healthily, while the adult casual wear segment is expected to decline due to industry conditions [3]. - Inventory levels increased by 29.4% year-on-year to 3.35 billion yuan, with a healthy inventory turnover structure [4]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.77 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8% [5]. - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 1.23 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year increase [5]. - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.46 yuan per share for 2025 [5]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 10.2% in 2025, increasing to 12.2% by 2027 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 7.50 [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 14.63 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and a net profit of RMB 1.14 billion, up 1.4% year-on-year, exceeding previous expectations due to effective channel adjustments [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a revenue of RMB 3.08 billion, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 210 million, down 38.1% year-on-year. The long-term value is expected to improve after the short-term performance pressure is released [1][2]. - The company is focusing on channel optimization and enhancing store efficiency, which is expected to lay a solid foundation for medium to long-term development [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - Online revenue for 2024 was RMB 6.67 billion, growing 7.24% year-on-year, while offline revenue from direct sales and franchises was RMB 1.55 billion (up 12.6%) and RMB 6.07 billion (up 5.1%), respectively [2]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 43.8%, primarily due to increased sales and financial expense ratios from channel layout adjustments [3]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 decreased by 4.9 percentage points to 6.9% [3]. Inventory and Operational Efficiency - By the end of 2024, the company's inventory was RMB 3.481 billion, an increase of 26.8% year-on-year, with inventory turnover days rising to 188 days in Q1 2025, an increase of 45 days year-on-year [4]. - Accounts receivable turnover days increased to 41 days in Q1 2025, indicating a slight short-term pressure on operational efficiency [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are RMB 1.29 billion and RMB 1.48 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at RMB 1.74 billion [5]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 15.7 for 2025, with a target price of RMB 7.50, reflecting its position as a leading brand in children's and leisure apparel despite short-term operational pressures [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, indicating pressure on performance and a significant drop in net profit margin compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 3.079 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.93% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 214 million yuan, down 38.12% year-on-year - Basic earnings per share were 0.08 yuan [1] - Gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 47.00% and 6.92%, respectively, with changes of +0.37 and -4.08 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The selling and administrative expense ratio increased to 34.16%, up 5.90 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to the decline in net margin [2] - Inventory turnover days increased to 188.32 days, up 45.08 days year-on-year [2] - Net cash flow from operating activities was 153 million yuan, a decrease of 81.71% year-on-year [2] Business Strategy - The company is focusing on upgrading domestic channels and enhancing overseas business models, with significant progress in store openings and renovations for its core brands, Semir and Balabala [2][3] - In 2024, over 500 new Semir image stores and Balabala store renovations were completed [2] - The company is implementing a multi-channel strategy for overseas markets, including direct sales, e-commerce, and partnerships with agents, successfully entering 15 countries and regions by the end of 2024 [3] Future Outlook - The company aims to continue improving retail capabilities and product circulation efficiency while expanding its overseas business footprint [4] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.46, 0.51, and 0.57 yuan, with a 2025 PE valuation of 13.72 times, which is below the average of comparable companies [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 7.50 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a 2024 annual revenue of 14.63 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and a net profit of 1.14 billion RMB, up 1.4% year-on-year, exceeding previous expectations due to effective channel adjustments [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a revenue of 3.08 billion RMB, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 210 million RMB, down 38.1% year-on-year, indicating short-term performance pressure but long-term value potential remains optimistic [1][5]. - The company is focusing on channel optimization and enhancing store efficiency, which is expected to lay a solid foundation for long-term development [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for 2024 decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 43.8%, primarily due to increased sales and financial expense ratios from channel layout adjustments [3]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 dropped by 4.9 percentage points to 6.9% [3]. Inventory and Operational Efficiency - As of the end of 2024, the company's inventory was 3.481 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%, with inventory turnover days increasing to 188 days in Q1 2025, up 45 days year-on-year [4]. - Accounts receivable turnover days also increased, indicating a slight short-term pressure on operational efficiency [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 1.29 billion RMB for 2025 and 1.48 billion RMB for 2026, with an introduction of a 2027 forecast of 1.74 billion RMB [5][6]. - The report suggests a PE ratio of 15.7 for 2025, reflecting the company's position as a leading brand in children's clothing and casual wear despite short-term operational pressures [5].