Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell over 2% on October 31, with significant declines in tech stocks, semiconductor sector, and automotive stocks, following the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 0.25% to 3.75%-4% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) followed the index's downward trend, with major holdings like Huahong Semiconductor, SMIC, BYD, Alibaba, Kuaishou, and Tencent experiencing substantial losses, including Huahong Semiconductor dropping over 8% [1] - As of October 30, the latest valuation (PETTM) of the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) was 23.50 times, which is approximately 32.84% below historical averages, indicating a potential safety margin for investors [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's October meeting resulted in a cautious stance from Chairman Powell, emphasizing that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, influenced by uncertainties in labor market data due to government shutdowns and differing views among officials regarding future growth and inflation risks [1] - Despite the cautious tone, there is a belief that a rate cut in December remains likely, as the job market is gradually cooling and the impact of tariffs on inflation is manageable, supporting a "preventive" rate cut strategy [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The technology sector in Hong Kong is expected to benefit from current trends in AI, with potential foreign capital inflows exceeding expectations due to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and continued accumulation of southbound funds, suggesting a positive outlook for the Hang Seng Technology Index in Q4 [2]
12月降息或仍是大概率事件，流动性宽松下看好恒生科技配置价值