Core Viewpoint - Huaxing Securities maintains a "Hold" rating on Xia Bo Xia Bo (00520) with a target price of HKD 1.00, corresponding to 0.2 times the 2026 P/S ratio [1] Revenue Forecast - The company is expected to see revenue changes from 2025 to 2027 with a decline of 15.0% in 2025, followed by growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, reaching revenues of CNY 40.4 billion, CNY 41.6 billion, and CNY 42.5 billion respectively [1] Net Profit/Loss Projections - The forecast indicates net losses attributable to shareholders of CNY 145 million in 2025 and CNY 66 million in 2026, with a projected net profit of approximately CNY 240 million in 2027 [1] Store Count Analysis - The number of Xia Bo Xia Bo stores peaked at 1,061 in 2020 and has been in decline, expected to bottom out at 760 stores in 2024. As of the first half of 2025, the store count has slightly increased to 763 [1] - If the store count continues to increase or stabilizes at the first half of 2025 level, it may indicate that a phase of adjustment has been completed, warranting attention to the company's future development [1] Coucou Brand Performance - The Coucou brand reached a peak of 257 stores in 2023 but has since begun to decline, with store numbers expected to drop to 197 in 2024 and further to 174 in the first half of 2025 [1] - The analysis suggests that the Coucou brand's store count has not yet bottomed out, and its future development should be monitored [1] Investment Opportunities - Historically, when the company's fundamentals have bottomed out, the likelihood of marginal improvement is significantly higher than the risk of continued decline, indicating potential investment opportunities as the Coucou brand stabilizes and recovers [1]
华兴证券：维持呷哺呷哺(00520)“持有”评级 目标价1港元