美联储再降息，失业率将升至4.5%，内部现分歧，降息救市效果存疑

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second rate cut in 2025 following a previous cut on September 17 [1][3] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The decision was made with a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against, highlighting a rare internal division within the Fed [1] - There is a notable divergence among Fed officials, with some advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut while others express concerns over persistent inflation [3] - The U.S. economy faces complex challenges, including a soft labor market with slowing job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, while inflation remains above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [3] Group 2: Data and Decision-Making Challenges - The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in the absence of key economic data, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [5] - The Fed's Chairman Powell acknowledged that the shutdown would "weigh on economic activity," and the lack of data creates additional difficulties for policy decisions [5][16] - The Fed is described as "driving in the fog," necessitating a slower decision-making pace due to the data vacuum [5] Group 3: Interest Rate Cut Implications - The recent rate cut is characterized as a "preemptive rate cut," supported by data indicating lower-than-expected inflation and significant employment weakness [7][8] - The Fed plans to end its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) on December 1, marking the conclusion of three years of asset balance sheet contraction [8] - The decision to cut rates is closely linked to signals of liquidity pressure in the financial system, transitioning from "excessively ample" reserves to "adequate" or even "structurally tight" conditions [12] Group 4: Market Reactions and Global Impact - The rate cut is expected to gradually lower mortgage, auto loan, and credit card rates for American households, with the average 30-year mortgage rate dropping from 6.6% to 6.2% [17] - For businesses, reduced financing costs may stimulate investment, injecting vitality into the economy [17] - On a global scale, the Fed's rate cut will influence capital flows, potentially benefiting emerging markets if the dollar weakens [19] Group 5: Future Uncertainties - The Fed faces three main uncertainties moving forward, primarily the data void caused by the government shutdown, complicating accurate economic assessments [21] - Balancing inflation and employment remains a challenge, with tariffs potentially continuing to exert upward pressure on inflation [21] - Leadership changes within the Fed pose risks, as Powell's term ends in May 2026, with potential successors impacting future rate cut paths [23]