美联储现惊天逆转！“印钞机”即将重启？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to begin expanding its balance sheet again early next year, which may alleviate investor concerns regarding the significant borrowing needs of the U.S. economy [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve officially ended its three-year quantitative tightening program, with Chairman Powell indicating that the central bank may soon become a major buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds again [1] - Analysts predict that the Fed will start purchasing enough Treasury bonds to expand its balance sheet in the first quarter of next year, likely in January or by March at the latest [1] - Monthly net purchases of $35 billion in Treasury bonds are anticipated, which could lead to a monthly expansion of approximately $20 billion in the Fed's $6.6 trillion balance sheet [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Market anxiety has eased as expectations grow that the Fed will end quantitative tightening, alongside signs of potential improvement in budget deficits [1] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has decreased significantly from a peak of 4.8% in January to below 4.1%, driven by increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts [2] - The additional yield of 10-year U.S. Treasuries over interest rate swaps has halved since April, indicating that worst-case concerns about sovereign debt supply may have been exaggerated [2] Group 3: Yield Curve Dynamics - The easing of borrowing tensions is reflected in the flattening of the government bond yield curve, with the extra yield on 30-year Treasuries over 2-year bonds dropping from 1.3% in September to 1% [3] - Efforts by policymakers in the U.S., U.K., and Japan to shorten government bond issuance terms have also alleviated concerns about an oversupply of long-term government debt [3] Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The end of quantitative tightening by the Fed is seen as a response to signs of stress in short-term financing markets, reflecting banks' desire to hold more reserves [3] - The current situation does not indicate a return to aggressive quantitative easing, which involves purchasing large amounts of government debt to inject liquidity into the financial system [3] - Despite recent positive developments, concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal deficits remain, with expectations that the debt-to-GDP ratio may exceed that of Italy later in the decade [4]