铜价突破“11000美元上限”！高盛“唱空”：任何突破都是暂时的，明年初铜价将逆转

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the recent surge in copper prices, which has reached $11,200 per ton, may be a temporary "bull trap" driven by sentiment rather than fundamental supply-demand tightness [1][4]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Dynamics - Copper prices have increased by 13% since mid-September, primarily driven by investor sentiment rather than actual supply-demand constraints [1][5]. - Goldman Sachs identifies two phases of copper price increases in 2023: a 15% rise from January to mid-September supported by solid fundamentals, and a subsequent 13% rise driven by speculative investments [5][6]. - The firm expects copper prices to retreat to the $10,000-$11,000 per ton range by early 2026, maintaining a forecasted average price of $10,500 per ton for that year [4][8]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Global visible copper inventories have increased by 700,000 tons this year, indicating a surplus in the market despite recent supply disruptions [4][8]. - The demand side shows signs of weakness, with China's apparent copper consumption declining by 2% year-on-year in September [8]. - Strong growth in global refined copper production, projected at a 4% increase for the year, is expected to counterbalance supply disruptions from major mines [8]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Market Sentiment - Despite extreme positioning in LME investor holdings, there remains potential for further inflows into the COMEX market, which could temporarily push copper prices higher [4][7]. - The current sentiment-driven price increase may reverse if global inventories do not significantly decline in the next six months, leading to a reduction in speculative long positions [8].