香港第一金：黄金陷入“鹰派降息”迷局，金价寻求新平衡

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the current gold market is in a balance between macroeconomic easing support and short-term policy pressure, with the 4000-4040 range being a key fluctuation zone [4] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% has ended a three-and-a-half-year balance sheet reduction, which is expected to maintain liquidity support for gold prices [2][3] - The dollar index is currently strong at 99.49, nearing a three-month high, which negatively impacts gold's attractiveness due to the inverse correlation between the dollar and gold [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis shows that the 4000 dollar mark has become a strong support level, while the resistance levels are identified at 4038-4040 and 4200-4218 [3] - The market is currently experiencing increased volatility, with a notable 5.3% drop in gold prices on October 21, leading to a short-term fluctuation pattern that requires caution [3] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a lack of economic data, potentially causing market pricing disruptions and liquidity shocks [3] Group 3 - In the medium to long term (1-3 months), the end of the balance sheet reduction and persistent inflation are expected to push gold prices towards 4400 dollars [4] - In the short term (1-2 weeks), the strong dollar and cooling rate cut expectations may lead to fluctuations within the 4000-4200 range, suggesting a strategy focused on buying on dips [4] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data on November 5 is a critical factor to watch, as it may influence the re-evaluation of rate cut expectations [4]