铜价突破“11000美元上限”！高盛唱空：明年初铜价将逆转

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that copper prices have surpassed previous historical highs to $11,200 per ton, but this breakthrough is unlikely to be sustained due to a lack of fundamental support and reliance on investor sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements and Influences - The recent increase in copper prices can be divided into two phases: a 15% rise from January to mid-September supported by solid fundamentals, and a subsequent 13% rise driven mainly by investor sentiment since mid-September [3]. - Key drivers for the initial price increase included a weaker dollar, improved growth expectations in China, and tightening spot markets outside the U.S. [3]. - The recent price surge has been influenced by supply disruptions, particularly at the Grasberg mine, attracting speculative investments [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Predictions - Goldman Sachs anticipates that investor inflows may continue in the short term, particularly in the COMEX market, despite LME investor positions being at a five-year high [2][5]. - The firm projects that copper prices will retreat to the $10,000-$11,000 per ton range by early 2026, with a forecasted average price of $10,500 per ton for that year [2][4]. - The expected price correction is supported by three main factors: increasing global visible inventories, signs of weakening demand from China, and strong growth in global refined copper production [6]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand Analysis - Global visible inventories are projected to increase by 700,000 tons this year, leading to a surplus in the copper market [6]. - China's apparent copper consumption has shown a year-on-year decline of 2% in September, indicating potential demand weakness [6]. - Despite supply disruptions, strong growth in refined copper production and increased scrap copper exports are expected to counterbalance supply constraints [6].