有利因素逐渐增多，制造业PMI有望回升

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October is at 49.0%, indicating a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, but there are expectations for gradual recovery in the future [1] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The October manufacturing PMI decline aligns with market expectations, primarily due to seasonal factors from overlapping holidays and increased uncertainty in international trade, leading to reduced production and investment expansion [1][2] - The production index and new orders index for October are at 49.7% and 48.8% respectively, indicating simultaneous slowdowns in both production and demand [2] - The new export orders index has decreased by 1.9 percentage points compared to September, remaining below the boom line for the first ten months of the year, reflecting the complexities in international trade [2] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Measures - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, with the recent release of the 15th Five-Year Plan proposal enhancing confidence in high-tech industries [3] - The central bank's current monetary policy is focused on utilizing existing structural policy tools, with an emphasis on sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence [3] - The upcoming year is seen as a critical starting point for the 15th Five-Year Plan, with significant project construction and commencement expected, reinforcing the "investment in people" concept [3]