Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-31 09:31Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Petroleum Corporation (00857, 601857.SH) due to the company's cash flow being sufficient to cover basic capital expenditures and dividends even when Brent oil prices are below $60 per barrel, with attractive free cash flow and dividend yield [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3, China National Petroleum's EBITDA and net profit decreased by 5% and 4% year-on-year, respectively, demonstrating resilience compared to a 13% decline in Brent crude oil prices during the same period [1] - EBITDA for the quarter was 3% higher than Goldman Sachs' expectations, driven by strong performance in upstream and natural gas sales [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - For the first three quarters, capital expenditures reached 65% of Goldman Sachs' full-year forecast, slightly above the historical average of 61% [1] - During the same period, cash flow amounted to 125% of Goldman Sachs' full-year expectations, compared to a historical average of 108% [1] Group 3: Valuation and Price Targets - The company is valued at a low level compared to global peers, with a target price of HKD 8.6 for H-shares and RMB 11.8 for A-shares [1]